As I said, more or less, and as You said, more or less, 1-3 years, trending 2, I think.
I think around late 2019, import lion at 1600$/10kWh.
The Tesla powerwall has 50% of the price in a huge nr of ancillary stuff.
Look at pics, now online.
The Tsla powerwall dropped prices/ kWh 50%, about november 2016.
Double the capacity, same list price.
Tsla leads, a lot, now in 2017, but by 2019 any nr of others will be getting onto the 10-50x bigger market.
Stock value/market forces/venture capital/profits/market size.
About 35 GWh global lion production 2016.
24 Gwk in mobility ie ex laptops/iphones etc.
Tsla used about 6 Gwh, or 25% +/- of all global use, in CY 2016.
Tsla is likely to use 10-12 GWh 2017, 20-30GWh 2018.
I think Tsla will do 30GWh+ FY 2018, because I think their energy business will take off within 12-18 months, based on their new low-cost cells.
There is zero evidence for this. It is my opinion only.
And as I said, current retail prices 300-700$/kWh, depending, and Your points re: costs are pretty much the same.
Online, I found a single pana 18650-b 3400 mAh cell, about 6$, retail.
Soon, the new 2170 at 5800 mAh will be about 40% less, by energy capacity.
Noteful:
18650-C, the auto battery for tsla, is not available from pana.
Same will aply to 2170, of course.
But similar will happen from pana and others, within a "soon" timescale.
An SSD or Solid State Disk drive for PCs dropped about 50% every 18-24 months, 3-4 times.
Exactly the same happens to lion cells, for exactly the same reasons.
(Near) Limitless market, low barriers to expansion, high demand @ low cost, high need at low cost, vastly higher industrial demand at (significantly) lower costs.
So at 200$/kWh, industrial demand might be 10-20 GWh, over time.
-- But at 130$ / GWg, it is likely 500 - 200 GWh.
--110$ / GWh -- 2000 GWh.
The battery market is about 10-100x bigger than iphone/iPod market vs apple market cap.
PC/RAM/MB/HDD markets.
Current total lion production, global, is == 35 GWh.
It needs to grow about 1000x in 5 years, or so.
At 380 W/kg, the tech./cost barrier was breached.
Unless they screw up, tsla/pana will both become the most valuable companies in the world.
On batteries.
The tsla cars are immaterial - in a global investment context.
As good as they are, I think, their value is in moving the world onto Good Batteries.
Elon Musk & Tesla has done this ... and no matter what, the world will move onto more (near total) electric mobility.
I respect Em a lot and like his ideas/ideals/actions.
He has had many errors (normal), has recovered brilliantly, and is by all accounts a tough person to work with (I think ++/- on this).
But the fact is, EM has moved the world to electric cars, and the movement will be irreversible within 2 years or so.
I personally think EM/tsla will succeed .. but I also think it has huge execution risk.
SCTY to me is a non-issue flyswat. Not material.
Ie it was probably better to absord it, for the EM brand to not flame out, but scty has a tiny effect on tsla financials.
Likewise, solar roofs etc., I think, are a tiny gnat financially.
So if the scty part does 1-2B in turnover, weather they make 10% profit or 10% loss is immaterial, in a company on track to do 50B sales soon, and 100B within 6-8 years.
2016 -- 8B.
E 2017 - 12B.
E 2018 - 24 B.
E 2019 - 50B.
I think/know that the energy is a bigger business than cars.
I think this will be visible approx 2019.
Reasons:
Tsla has, by far, cheapest/best batteries, biggest manufacturing, fastest ramp, in the world.
Energy storage is a 17Trillion market, 17.000 B $.
Tsla will take most of this. Very quickly.
Because global utilities squeezed for margins due to PV/wind, need to Do Something, and the best fastest easiest solution is Tsla Energy.
And Tsla is the only Bankable solution, new startups with no history cannot sign 20 year take-off agreements or PPAs that banks/markets will finance.
As I said, I am not a Tsla Fanboy as such.
All my comments above are based on tech and costs and margins and stock market values and public or semi-public cogs values.
I am not invested in Tsla ... too much beta for me.
I think it has inherent value, tremendous potential, and very high risk.
I would say that price $1540 for 10Kwh, is not going to happen for at least 2-3 years. I could be wrong, and I hope I am : )Torqueedo Power 26-104: $968/kwhTesla 14kwh Power Wall: $393/kwhCause right now here are the current actual retail prices:When is soon?So you think a 10kwh lithium battery that I can buy, will cost $1,540.00 soon? (40% x $1100)
ElectrIQ Power 10Kwh: $1300/kwh
GBS 48V 100Ah Li-Ion Battery Pack: $670/kwh
Lead Acid Batteries: around $200/kwh
Tesla has the best price right now for lithium, so you think retail prices will drop by 60% of tesla's price, soon?
-- -hanermo (cnc designs)
Posted by: Hannu Venermo <gcode.fi@gmail.com>
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