We mostly agree on everything ...
and I did not aim to critisize .. or come across as a know-it-all or arrogant, by any means.
Just point out some data points that are perhaps not so obvious.
My viewpoints are somewhat market-based and market-related, with a very heavy dose of tech mixed in - I used to be a real (IT) geek.
My major POV re: Northstar and for anyone else like that, is that it is simply not possible.
IE IF the optimistic marketing numbers they state publicly were real-world actual-usage cases, they would take over ALL the markets, globally, in their sector, in about 6-12 months.
Money rules.
OEMs have money, and they really, really, really want to buy better cheaper batteries.
More or less every single OEM, yacht builder, auto company, would specify these as the preferred-option.
Mostly because the numbers indicate 30-40% cost-reduction, overnight.
... large OEMs are happy to spend 10M$++ to reduce costs in a battery 2-3-4%, in 2 years.
About 55 Million total 12V OEM batteries from the auto world would buy these, today, at those specs, per year.
Batteries are a major headache/critical path/cost center/risk center in many ways.
LG/Samsung/Pana/Tsla (+BYD, LiFepo4) + 200 other startups spend about 3-5B$ per year total on battery research, and achieve about 9% y/y incremental improvements.
This trend has held 17 years, and has accelerated last 1-2 years.
There are any nr of ways to make "better" traditional batteries of more capacity ... and longevity .. at relatively high cost.
Thicker plates, more bottom settling area, matrix/holed/substrate plates, filtered or circulated acids, etc.. are some examples.
Likewise, the so-called pouch-batteries from BEV competitors to Tesla in traditional-auto were supposed to be better, cheaper, more efficient, scale up faster vs lots of tiny 18650-C) cells.
From 2012 onwards..
They turned out to be about double the cost, less efficient, less durable, and much slower to scale up.
-Lack of production scale globally
-Poor chemistry
-Poor energy density
-Lack of investment
Hi Hannu,The LFP numbers are wildly over-optimistic, with qualifiers like lifetime rated at 20C !! steady state.
1.
Never happen, in 90-98-99.5%+ of boats.
The LFP cycles are taken from the data sheet and are: 80% DoD 2500 cycles,70% DoD 3000 cycles,50% DoD 5000 cycles as are...
1.1 The lead is wildly overoptimistic, and does not take overall temp and natural aging into account.
Lead acid batteries are typically changed 3-5 years into use (higher end, bigger / more expensive boats), and mostly 300 cycles or so.. or less, in boats.
no lead acid / agm battery system in any standard yacht lasts 2-3 seasons of charter use.
I frequently charter yachts for personal fun... as It is vastly cheaper than owning a boat, here in Barcelona, Spain.
Minimal marina fees etc., tiny 5-6m boat, 6000€ / yr, == 7000$ /yr.
Add maintenance, depreciation, costs, about 11-1200$ /yr.
A 5-day charter on a 15 m - 49 feet luxury yacht (1M€ purchase cost) == 2000€, and I usually pay about 400€ as my share (often as the captain in charge).
So my observations are based on about 15-20 charters over 7-10 years.
the lead at 50% DoD 2050 cycles.
2.
Yes, agree completely. And it is a GREAT way to look at batteries/energy/costs.
What I'm doing with my little sheet is trying to show 4 options for a small sailing yacht that compares solutions with similar cycles and range using 1kW of power, hence picking 80% for Lithium and 50% for lead. I understand 50% with lead to be the sensible discharge level. Not saying you can't go more, it's just that voltage sag and life cycle economics come into play more.3.Yes,
I agree NMC is more risky than LiFePO4 and I made sure I mentioned that in the thread. A BMS and cut our relays on hi/lo voltage on a boat seem to me essential.4. Yes.
My only comment was uis that usually sailboat engine rooms are hot, far too hot..
And any engine, including electric, will have an effect.
Yet, 2 kW is not significant at all.
This is motly ion context of 50kw+ engine peak outputs.
I agree re temperatures, hence I'm only discussing a small sailing yacht that would likely under constant cruise only have 15% heat lost to ambient atmosphere in the engine space, so we are only talking 150W to around 240W for this situation.
I find your numbers and insights on where we are going with costs and lithium really interesting. Sure capital cost is still high for boats but the purpose of my little sheet is to gain some insight into the fact it's not all about headline prices. It's an exercise I did some years ago, but felt it was time to take another look as things have moved on as you suggest.
-- -hanermo (cnc designs)
Posted by: Hannu Venermo <gcode.fi@gmail.com>
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