Hi Hanermo,
I appreciate your optimism about the advances in technology, but I'm wondering when all of this is supposed to start.
In the last 20 years, energy storage capacity has improved to 2-3 times higher per mass, comparing leading edge Li-Ion batteries to lead acid. Of course, there were intermediate steps along the way like NiCad and NiMH batteries, but the net result has been less than less than 5% improvement in energy density per year. At rate, it should take more than 30 years to achieve a 4 times improvement in energy density over what we have today.
Looking at cost to normal folk like you or me, the LiFePO4 batteries that I bought would cost 10% more today than I paid 2 years ago. Due to recent developments in the rare earths markets, the prices of these batteries is expected to go up as demand rises. Again, these batteries cost 1/3 of what they did 10 years earlier when they were experimental, but that is only 10% drop in cost/year. Now that the mass prodcution volumes have been reached, I would expect that the cost reductions will slow down, and the last 2 years have shown that.
The per watt cost of solar panels has dropped over the last 15 years, but nowhere near a rate of 40% per year. Even if we assume 10% cost reduction per watt per year, in 10 years, the cost level would still be 40% of current (diminishing returns). The history on median US retail module price index has gone from $5.00/watt peak in Jan 2002 to $2.60/watt peak in July 2011. Prices are based upon the purchase of a single solar module and are exclusive of sales taxes.
So while these predictions are enticing, I have found that in the areas of solar, energy storage and EV's, the predictions from 15, 10, and 5 years ago never came to fruition. And yet the same industry people continue to declare that it's going to happen. Eventually they will be right, but their credibility about how soon it will happen with me has gone down over time. I'l gladly accept any improvements that come down the pipe, but I'm only counting on what is already available in the general market. I do agree with your statement that "... when the cost level is 20% of current, and the energy storage density is about 3-5 times higher per mass, solar and electric propulsion will be better and cheaper than comparable internal combustion technology". Unfortunately, it is entirely possible that this may not happen anytime soon. Or it could happen in 5 years, we just don't know.
I'm willing to go out on a limb and state that I'll be very surprised if 10% of auxiliary sailboats in the 26'-40' range (the easiest ones) in the US (where we can get decent statistics from the Coast Guard) will be electric in 10 years. Right now we're at less than 1% of the installed base (about 50,000 total registered vessels as described above in 2010, down 2% from 2009), it might be true that boats in this size range with no auxiliary power at all still outnumber us... And I'm sure that ther percentage of electric power boats in the same 26'-40' size range will stay at a much smaller percentage (about 435,000 total registered vessels in 2010). Maybe the smaller (less than 26') boats will make more progress in going electric in the next few decades.
I'm just throwing this info out here in case anyone is counting on these improvements to make their plans possible. We don't know what the future bring, it could be great but it could also be more of the same.
Along the same vein, I've got plenty of data that says that I should be able to average an 7% annual return on my investments over the next 20 years, but right now, that doesn't look as promising as it once did... Certainly the last 5 years doesn't help support that idea.
Fari winds,
Eric
Marina del Rey, CA
--- In electricboats@yahoogroups.com, "\"hanermo\" - CNC 6-axis Designs" <gcode.fi@...> wrote:
>
> Hi Gabe, and welcome ..
>
> I have some comments, that may be less positive than you would wish for, but hopefully will allow you a bit more realism based on the current costs and ease of making boats....
>
> It is practically certain, that within approx. 10 years, solar will become a mainstream, affordable, candidate for primary propulsion in ocean crossing yachts. The problems are partly techincal and partly cost-related, and costs are dropping at the 40% year/year level.
>
> It is practically certaing, that within approx. 10 years, solar will become a mainstream, affordable, candidate for primary propulsion in ocean crossing yachts. The problems are partly technical and partly cost-related, and costs are dropping at the 40% year/year level.
>
> When the cost level is 20% of current, and the energy storage density is about 3-5 times higher per mass, solar and electric propulsion will be better and cheaper than comparable internal combustion technology. This is not the case today...
>
>
> Good luck,
> Hanermo
>
>
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