Most of the world apart from the USA does not have expensive complex
permits for PV installs.
Most of the rest of the world also has less developed financing, and
thus a big desire for cheap self-installs.
Avg total systems costs, today, are about 1€ or 1.1 $ (price leaders).
This is what homeowners in, say, Australia, are paying for a typical 3-5
kW system.
Approx 3-5000$, total.
Installs are tens of thousands per year, the numbers are not trivial.
Panels cost approx 0.50$ / watt, and this cost decreases about 0.1 - 0.2
cents/w, at the moment.
Prices are online, and can be had anywhere off say ebay, for about these
prices.
Panels cost 0.38$ to make (cost leader), and this reduces about 0.1 -
0.2 cents/yr.
(All manufacturers, pretty much. Otherwise they go bust).
Costs and prices of PV stuff are online, in the public filings done by
all listed companies.
Inverters cost almost nothing to make, and are still overpriced.
Competition should drop this to near-zero, within a few years.
Its highly likely chinese manufacturers will own this market as well,
and the us manufacturers re-locate (enphase et al) or go bust.
This has already happened in servo drives, that are technically pretty
much similar /the same thing in components.
(Servo drives == VFDs == inverters. Both chop up power, and then control
it. One in, one out).
An example.
A german Siemens or japanese jaskawa servo drive electronic module costs
about 2500$.
A chinese drive, identically good in use, costs 140$.
This price keeps droppping until it hits about 50$, near manufacturing
costs (20-30 or so).
I can buy panels, here in the EU, with VAT paid at 22%, for 0.54€.
Inverters cost approx 0.10-0.60€/watt, depending.
E.g. Microinverters need no permits or planning.
You plug it in the wall socket, and done.
Due to same developments and markets as cell phone and IT stuff,
microinverter costs will probably go to near zero, since they are not
hard to make cheaply in large quantities.
I suspect less than 20$ within 2-3 years.
There are about 5 billion people in the world, who really Really want to
buy very cheap microinverters and panels.
Most of them live in south america, asia, africa.
Market size is thus pretty large.
My pov is based on closely following the stock market and technical
developments for about 10 years in PV stuff, and automation and power
electronics stuff (VFDs, servos, etc).
And actual experiences in the IT field and geometric expansion in
internet and IT fields for 20 years.
And now manufacturing fields and automation, for about 10 years.
I comment on more or less what are the actual trends, with some opinions
and viepoints.
Some of my conlusions are probably wrong, and some timelines will vary.
Most of the data is going to be correct, but picked from a huge field.
And often, the data/prices/deliveries may not, yet, be available locally
(or public).
And some stuff is not available due to regulations etc.
--
-hanermo (cnc designs)
Posted by: Hannu Venermo <gcode.fi@gmail.com>
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