On Sun, Nov 20, 2011 at 12:11:14PM -0800, Carter Quillen wrote:
>
> Ben,
>
> I agree with everything you said except the main point, solar HAS crossed over
> to being a competative and cost effective alternative to conventional electric
> power generation.
Carter - I'm as much pro-solar as anyone. The difference is, I approach
it from an economic standpoint, using cost-benefit analysis rather than
blind faith or enthusiasm as a substitute. A solar energy install is
still significantly more expensive than just tapping the grid, whenever
that option is available - particularly if you put aside all the false
cost-shifting arguments ("if you just buy more energy-efficient
appliances", "if you just DIY", etc.) However, for _new_ installations
where a grid hook-up isn't an option, solar has now come down in price
to where the recovery period/breakover point for the investment is less
than 20 years - and that's a HUGE factor. That's the point at which both
the public interest and the investor interest begin to skyrocket; in
fact, that's already happened.
That, by the way, is the traditional meaning of the word "cusp": the point *at*
which things happen, not the point *before* things start happening. The sales
culture here in the US has done some neat footwork to make it look like the
latter, but that's nonsense: you can't be "on the cusp" for 20 years by
definition. The cusp is only a single moment.
> We were on the cusp for 20 years but we have clearly crossed
> over in the last two years. You are buying into the big lie that is holding
> everybody back!
I don't "buy into" anybody's big or small lies. That's a personality
assessment, and one you're neither qualified to make nor have any reason
to assume. I disagree with you on some things, but that doesn't mean
that I'm "buying into" anything. You, however, may be buying into your own
rhetoric and confusing it with facts. It's important to look up and take
a deep breath once in a while. I'd suggest you do that.
> I would have spent $5000 for
> the diesel fuel for one trip around the loop alone. And that is at "TODAYS"
> diesel prices, who knows what diesel will cost next year. But my fuel will
> still be the same price, FREE.
Erm... *that* would be the big lie that _you're_ buying into. Or perhaps
selling - I don't know, and can't guess.
"This company just sold me a fuel tank for $100,000, but they're going
to give me 10,000 gallons of diesel, FREE!!! Haha, I laugh at all you
stupid suckers actually *paying* for diesel!!!"
> I'll admit my economics look a little unnatureally good because I'm a DIYer
Exactly my point. You don't have to be a DIYer, or have special qualifications,
or special appliances, or relatives in the solar business, etc. to get all the
cost benefits of grid power: it's there, and it's available to almost everyone.
It's the default cheap option. To make the numbers work for solar in any way at
all, you have to have a special situation where grid power _isn't_ the best
option, or simply not available - i.e., a solar-powered boat - at which point,
solar is not only feasible but pretty much the default.
--
Ben Okopnik
-=-=-=-=-=-
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