OK, this is back off topic but Ben started it so I'll make one last comment, (promise).
Integrated solar electric installations,(panels and BoS) have fallen below $3000/kiloWatt for individual one up systems and even cheaper for large scale utility applications. That has just happened this year. The recent precipitous drop in solar costs not only makes PV a great deal for wierd applications like solar electric boats but it also makes it a better deal for new electric generating capacity than nuclear at $10-$20/kiloWatt, coal fired plants at $5-$10 per kiloWatt and it's nipping at the heals of natureal gas fire generation at $2-$3/Watt. I'm not buying into green rhetoric here, nor do I have a sales agenda. These economic FACTS are the reason that the more enlightened individuals and utilities are embracing solar and buying the stuff as fast as the industry can make it right now. You are basing your economic analysis on old data.
Admittedly, it is still considerably cheaper in the SHORT run for an individual to just plug into the grid, and applying efficiency and conservation measures are still a way better deal too but if you objectively do the math, even a one up installation on an individual home will make you money on a long term investment basis. This becomes roughly true at $3/Watt, not true at $5/Watt. I say roughly because it does depend a little on what your electric rates are and the solar resource in your area, ie, you get a much better ROI in Florida than you do in Alaska. And, you don't even have to consider tax credits, feed in tariffs and the likelyhood of escalating grid electric prices in your economic analysis, which only makes solar an even better deal btw. And lets talk about your "false cost shifting" arguments. If electric consumers actually had to pay the capitalization cost upfront for the additonal energy infrastructure required to meet their needs when they tap into the grid, solar might actually be a better short term deal as well.
Lastly, for the record, I'm not in the solar business nor am I some uninformed, granola eating, tree hugging, bunny lover. I'm a registered professional consulting engineer with 30 years experience in commercial and industrial HVAC design and system efficiency optimization so I think I might actually have a slightly qualified opinion.
If I havn't convince you yet that solar has crossed the cusp from not being cost effective into the realm of being a good investment then we'll just have to agree to disagree.
To: "electricboats@yahoogroups.com" <electricboats@yahoogroups.com>
Cc:
Sent: Monday, November 21, 2011 9:34 AM
Subject: Re: [Electric Boats] Re: new lithium battery breakthrough?
On Sun, Nov 20, 2011 at 12:11:14PM -0800, Carter Quillen wrote:
>
> Ben,
>
> I agree with everything you said except the main point, solar HAS crossed over
> to being a competative and cost effective alternative to conventional electric
> power generation.
Carter - I'm as much pro-solar as anyone. The difference is, I approach
it from an economic standpoint, using cost-benefit analysis rather than
blind faith or enthusiasm as a substitute. A solar energy install is
still significantly more expensive than just tapping the grid, whenever
that option is available - particularly if you put aside all the false
cost-shifting arguments ("if you just buy more energy-efficient
appliances", "if you just DIY", etc.) However, for _new_ installations
where a grid hook-up isn't an option, solar has now come down in price
to where the recovery period/breakover point for the investment is less
than 20 years - and that's a HUGE factor. That's the point at which both
the public interest and the investor interest begin to skyrocket; in
fact, that's already happened.
That, by the way, is the traditional meaning of the word "cusp": the point *at*
which things happen, not the point *before* things start happening. The sales
culture here in the US has done some neat footwork to make it look like the
latter, but that's nonsense: you can't be "on the cusp" for 20 years by
definition. The cusp is only a single moment.
> We were on the cusp for 20 years but we have clearly crossed
> over in the last two years. You are buying into the big lie that is holding
> everybody back!
I don't "buy into" anybody's big or small lies. That's a personality
assessment, and one you're neither qualified to make nor have any reason
to assume. I disagree with you on some things, but that doesn't mean
that I'm "buying into" anything. You, however, may be buying into your own
rhetoric and confusing it with facts. It's important to look up and take
a deep breath once in a while. I'd suggest you do that.
> I would have spent $5000 for
> the diesel fuel for one trip around the loop alone. And that is at "TODAYS"
> diesel prices, who knows what diesel will cost next year. But my fuel will
> still be the same price, FREE.
Erm... *that* would be the big lie that _you're_ buying into. Or perhaps
selling - I don't know, and can't guess.
"This company just sold me a fuel tank for $100,000, but they're going
to give me 10,000 gallons of diesel, FREE!!! Haha, I laugh at all you
stupid suckers actually *paying* for diesel!!!"
> I'll admit my economics look a little unnatureally good because I'm a DIYer
Exactly my point. You don't have to be a DIYer, or have special qualifications,
or special appliances, or relatives in the solar business, etc. to get all the
cost benefits of grid power: it's there, and it's available to almost everyone.
It's the default cheap option. To make the numbers work for solar in any way at
all, you have to have a special situation where grid power _isn't_ the best
option, or simply not available - i.e., a solar-powered boat - at which point,
solar is not only feasible but pretty much the default.
--
Ben Okopnik
-=-=-=-=-=-
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Cc:
Sent: Monday, November 21, 2011 9:34 AM
Subject: Re: [Electric Boats] Re: new lithium battery breakthrough?
On Sun, Nov 20, 2011 at 12:11:14PM -0800, Carter Quillen wrote:
>
> Ben,
>
> I agree with everything you said except the main point, solar HAS crossed over
> to being a competative and cost effective alternative to conventional electric
> power generation.
Carter - I'm as much pro-solar as anyone. The difference is, I approach
it from an economic standpoint, using cost-benefit analysis rather than
blind faith or enthusiasm as a substitute. A solar energy install is
still significantly more expensive than just tapping the grid, whenever
that option is available - particularly if you put aside all the false
cost-shifting arguments ("if you just buy more energy-efficient
appliances", "if you just DIY", etc.) However, for _new_ installations
where a grid hook-up isn't an option, solar has now come down in price
to where the recovery period/breakover point for the investment is less
than 20 years - and that's a HUGE factor. That's the point at which both
the public interest and the investor interest begin to skyrocket; in
fact, that's already happened.
That, by the way, is the traditional meaning of the word "cusp": the point *at*
which things happen, not the point *before* things start happening. The sales
culture here in the US has done some neat footwork to make it look like the
latter, but that's nonsense: you can't be "on the cusp" for 20 years by
definition. The cusp is only a single moment.
> We were on the cusp for 20 years but we have clearly crossed
> over in the last two years. You are buying into the big lie that is holding
> everybody back!
I don't "buy into" anybody's big or small lies. That's a personality
assessment, and one you're neither qualified to make nor have any reason
to assume. I disagree with you on some things, but that doesn't mean
that I'm "buying into" anything. You, however, may be buying into your own
rhetoric and confusing it with facts. It's important to look up and take
a deep breath once in a while. I'd suggest you do that.
> I would have spent $5000 for
> the diesel fuel for one trip around the loop alone. And that is at "TODAYS"
> diesel prices, who knows what diesel will cost next year. But my fuel will
> still be the same price, FREE.
Erm... *that* would be the big lie that _you're_ buying into. Or perhaps
selling - I don't know, and can't guess.
"This company just sold me a fuel tank for $100,000, but they're going
to give me 10,000 gallons of diesel, FREE!!! Haha, I laugh at all you
stupid suckers actually *paying* for diesel!!!"
> I'll admit my economics look a little unnatureally good because I'm a DIYer
Exactly my point. You don't have to be a DIYer, or have special qualifications,
or special appliances, or relatives in the solar business, etc. to get all the
cost benefits of grid power: it's there, and it's available to almost everyone.
It's the default cheap option. To make the numbers work for solar in any way at
all, you have to have a special situation where grid power _isn't_ the best
option, or simply not available - i.e., a solar-powered boat - at which point,
solar is not only feasible but pretty much the default.
--
Ben Okopnik
-=-=-=-=-=-
------------------------------------
Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/electricboats/
<*> Your email settings:
Individual Email | Traditional
<*> To change settings online go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/electricboats/join
(Yahoo! ID required)
<*> To change settings via email:
electricboats-digest@yahoogroups.com
electricboats-fullfeatured@yahoogroups.com
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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