Yes, please provide details ...
The EV world drives batteries in tech/cost/capacity .. essentially
tesla, for now, and probably for 1-2-3 years more at least.
Current tsla costs were around == 112$/kWh production marginal costs
around 1 yr ago/cell, about 1 yr ago.
My analysis.
With around 215 Wh/kg in capacity - 10 year practical lifetime on
everyday use with a BMS and thermal conditioning.
There are indications (Straubel) that the next-gen cells and packs will
start shipping around Q1/2019, around 80$/cell costs and 100$/kWh pack
costs, internal.
This was hinted at 2+ years ago.
Verified/hinted at 1 month ago.
The big thing is that if tsla, or anyone else anywhere, can make "good"
batteries at a cost of say 80$, soon after others will also make similar
batteries at similar costs - or go out of business.
At 80/100$ pack costs ==> 300Wh/kg we are very close to electric
aeroplanes, and electric transport is a given.
All trucks, vans, taxis, commercial cars, salesmen, most daily driving -
go electric at 300 Wh/kg - increasing battery demands by about 50x
globally, and leading to a 30-50% decrease in costs once production
capacity is built up.
In 2018/2019 tsla will use about 20 GWh of advanced lion batteries on
230k cars +/-.
While making == 300.000 -350.000 cars of 85 kWh each in 2019, +/-.
Every time you increase by 2-4x your total output your costs drop 10%,
generally, in modern industrial production in scale-up phase.
Tsla looks set to increase about 230% in 2018, 230% in 2019, 230% in 2020.
This would lead to 500-600Wh/kg cells of 40-60$ costs by 2020.
The exact same growth curve has happened to ram, pc processor
power/costs, gpus, pv panels, for over 15 years.
The total global manufacture of advanced lion cells is dominated by
tsla/pana today at 20 GWh/2018 usage --
but needs to increase about 1000x for real global motive and industrial
needs on a global scale.
If tsla makes 200k cars / 20 gWh;
The world makes 100 M cars in 2020 +/-.
For 40% market penetration the private-auto market alone then needs ==
200x the 20 gWh production in 2018 or 4 TWh/yr or 20+ "Tsla
gigafactories" of 150 GWh/yr full production.
Commercial vans/trucks adds 100% - 4 TWh.
Coastal shipping and industrial use adds 100% - 4 TWh.
Industrial grid-storage-stabilisation-reserve "tesla energy- type" adds
much more than 4 TWh - impossible to quantify.
The battery cost/benefit curve has broken on the side of advanced
batteries- advanced lion for now.
So it is more profitable for an increasing nr of car companies and
industrial users and private users to use the best/overall lion
batteries - vs anything else.
Cell costs/capacity keep dropping 7-9% y/y exponential, in steps, - and
there are multiple indications this will keep up several generations.
If tsla paid 10k$ for a battery on a 100k car in 2017, the battery sales
volume was == 1.1B$ in 2017 on 11 B in tsla ev sales.
== 2.2B$ in battery cells in 2018.
== 4.5B$ in in battery cells in 2019.
Around 2020 1-2 new factories should start making cells, of a newer
generation chemistry.
Obviously pana will happily go 10B$ in debt to fund these, as they pay
off in == 3 years - world fastest ROI - similar to pc fabs but more
secure and profitable.
On 23/08/2018 14:53, Kev captainyoung@gmail.com [electricboats] wrote:
> I am interested in lead crystal batteries.
>
> Can you give us more details?
> Cost?
> They say you can go to 0% discharge, but what is recommended? 50%, 20%,
> Where did you buy them? I don't see any for sale in the US.
> Thanks
> Kevin
--
-hanermo (cnc designs)
Posted by: Hannu Venermo <gcode.fi@gmail.com>
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