Hannu, I've been following analyses like yours for a while, and I'm a little more skeptical than you. Costs are driven by critical mass, pricing is not. If people are willing to pay top dollars for a product, companies will obviously skim the market. Case in point: Oasis Firefly, which I mentioned in my original post. This is what transpired with them.
I contacted both Firefly and Lead Crystal simultaneously at the very beginning of my search, through their online contact page. I explained my need, and while Lead Crystal directed me to their US rep, which called me immediately on my cell and followed up through phone and emails, Oasis followed up by email through their technical support people. They sent me a long questionnaire asking detailed information about my boat and sailing conditions, which I filled, and provided me with a perfect life-cycle cost analysis recommending certain configuration. Impeccable. Except for one detail, the price they used was a fraction of the retail price in the US. I even called a couple suppliers asking if the cost would be different if buying 8 batteries, and they said the price was the same in any quantity, plus lead time was six months! I moved on.
While I was dealing with Lead Crystal, Firefly tech support contacted me again asking about my project. I told them that at their quoted price ($340 each battery, in line with Lifeline and other top tier batteries) they were an attractive proposition, however the US retail price was $486 each (and six months wait), invalidating the analysis. Talking about skimming the market. Demand is so high that the other day I read a Craigslist posting by a guy who got a hold of four of them and was offering the lot at $600 each!
Bottom line, while costs are going down, I don't see prices following the same trend. Yes, price is going down as more companies enter the market and production increases, however, we won't see the pricing of a mature market for a long, long time.
Just to illustrate even more how these companies are really skimming the market: after I told Firefly's tech support I was dealing with Lead Crystal because at $486 their product made no sense to me, they got back saying they were extremely interested in my application, and they offered me a nice discount and immediate delivery (how nice a discount? around $300 each!) They could sell at around $300 making a profit, and they have a huge backlog selling at $486.
Shortly after this offer, Firefly's US "master distributor" contacted me with the nastiest (and longest) email ever, accusing me, among many, many things, of "going behind his back, and contacting India directly to get a better pricing". A very disgusting person. I explained to him (copying the email to tech support and all other people I had contact with at Oasis) that up to that moment I wasn't even aware I was dealing with India, that I contacted Oasis via their webpage, and it was Oasis who put me in touch with tech support instead of their US "master distributor", and it was Oasis who made the offer. I guess Oasis still has some honorable people within their ranks, they got back to me saying they would sell at the discounted price with immediate delivery.
Comparing experiences between Lead Crystal (straight shooters from day one and superb customer support) the decision was clear, I could have saved quite a lot of money if buying Firefly, however I do not conduct business with companies being represented by people like this Mr. Schwab.
Alberto
Posted by: tugoc@hotmail.com
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