T-Pain Is On A Boat: RE: [Electric Boats] Re: Batteries for boats, and mobility

It would be helpful to cite the references for some of your numbers, Hannu.

Also please be more careful with your units used.

You note that you expect "130$ battery by 2018". From what follows, I understand that you mean "$130/kwh" cost for batteries by 2018".

Now, how realistic is this? Well, thanks to energy credits and some obfuscation by Tesla and others, it's not clear. For each Tesla sold in California or other ZEV states, Tesla typically earns 5 credits, or about $30-40k per car. That's a lot of money with which a car manufacturer could use to "claim" that their battery costs have reached very low values.

From a July 2014 article on the subject (http://theconversation.com/affordable-batteries-for-green-energy-are-closer-than-we-think-28772 ),

it was noted that in 2009, lithium batteries cost nom. $800/kwh and had come down to $600/kwh by 2014.

Further, cost prediction trend graphs were plotted from 10 different sources with forecasts thru 2020 and 2030.

These dated estimates showed $310/kwh by 2020 and $150/kwh by 2030.

It's commonly claimed that Tesla makes their batteries at a cost of $250/kwh now and that Tesla expects their gigafactory to bring costs down 50% at full capacity. Recently Tesla followed thru on providing Roadster owners an estimate on how much it would cost to replace their aging packs with a fresh new one: $29k for 70kwh pack, or about $410/kwh. Now, Tesla notes that this is all-inclusive installed cost and they claim that they will do this 100% at their cost---i.e. there's no markup in this (they claim). Here's the article:

http://www.autoblog.com/2015/09/01/tesla-roadster-battery-pack-replacement/

Now, assuming they're being truthful and assuming that the pack itself costs 2/3 of the total cost for replacement, we again get around $250/kwh for a pack. But that's at their cost. Add profits to the costs and you see that realistic cost for a pack today is probably more like $300/kwh or more.

Now, lucky for us, there are increasingly deals out there. My most recent purchases of lithium for my boat cost nom. $6k for 23-24kwh, or about $250/kwh --- 12S (31-48v) modules, 3+kwh each, fully housed and interconnected and including remote lithium energy controllers. These were ex-THINK Enerdel packs---i.e. very marked-down and surplus at this point. We're pretty flexible with our electric boats to accommodate opportunities like this, so it's a good time to consider lithium for sure.

I totally agree that as the price continues to fall, we will see new and broader applications of lithium storage. For years it frustrated me that solar photovoltaics never seemed to fall in price below $4-6/watt. These days even the best commercial 20% panels can be had for around $2/watt.

It will be interesting to see where we're at in 5 years…oil and gas prices are at record lows at the same time as all these cost reductions for EV technology. That typically kills demand for electric vehicles. It's almost certain that there are big players out there betting against Tesla and their gigafactory ambitions. Already, some electric utilities are panicking at the huge scale of homeowners adding solar power to their homes and now the possibility that all this cost reduction for storage and solar will lead to a wave of customers going completely off-grid even in the cities. With their huge investments and revenue on the line, you know they won't sit idle and watch their customers go away.

Interesting times-

-Myles Twete, Soggy Portland, Or.

From: electricboats@yahoogroups.com [mailto:electricboats@yahoogroups.com]
Sent: Saturday, December 12, 2015 1:15 AM
To: electricboats@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [Electric Boats] Re: Batteries for boats, and mobility

Hope some find this interesting..

Worldwide, battery tech is advancing rapidly.
Approx 7-9% by mass or cost, per year/year.

Its led by tesla, but there are at least 5-6 credible alternatives with
promising lab (production) results.

What I expect for electric boats:
A 130$ battery by 2018 (+/-), ex-factory.
Thus 90 kWh - 11.700 $.
90 kW == approx what you want/need to equal current std boat configs, or
about 3x the range of a 60l volume car tank, due to better electric
motor efficiencies.
On boats and cars, an electric drivetrain == 300% more efficient (or
more powerful).
A 90kWh battery, at 250 kg mass, makes even planing boats have the same
range as current ones, at lower cost.
11.700$ is a lot less than a commercial continuous duty 300 hp marine
engine, transmission, fuel tank systems and drivetrain (approx
50.000$-100.000 $ (Nordhavns)).

Current tech & Tesla:
Tesla already has the next 2 chemistries, according to them, since they
need about 1 year of tests before mass-production, and mass production
is == 1 - 1.5 years away for cars.
Their current version 18650-C is a proprietary one with the
best/cheapest mass market solution, at the moment.
Approx 360W/kg, iirc, and == 400 kg for 90kWh.

The next version is likely to be a different package, 27100, with the
new chemistry.
New chemistry adds == 10% capacity.
== 360W x 1.1 == 400W.

The new cell size 27100 increases volumetric capacity by == 30% - thus
you need less modules.
Module count will thus go down == 30%, so 7000*70% == 5100 cells.
This reduces the BOS or balance of system costs (20%) == 30%.

Current Tesla costs == 180$ ( Watt (industry speculation).
New pack costs are likely to be == 100-130$ (with 2nd gen chemistry).
2nd gen chemistry == 2018 timeframe.
GM stated costs of 145$ / module, and Tesla expects their own costs to
be clearly lower, thus I see something in the 100-130$ range by 2018, +/-.

Tesla is the reference standard, as they spend about 200M$ / quarter in
R&D, and have been developing better traction/mobility batteries for 12
years.
They are also the worlds largest user of batteries (BYD is close), and
within a year the largest makers of batteries, with Panasonic partnership.
They also increase sales, spending, and manufacturing, and headcount,
about 50% year/year.
R&D % stays pretty much the same % compared tot total sales.

Heres an interesting look at the tesla battery.
http://hackaday.com/2014/09/13/tesla-model-s-battery-teardown/

At 130$ some aeroplanes (short range) already go electric.
A 100$ battery means most aeroplanes go electric.
Sub 100$ means trucks go electric, and "everything" else as well, or
over 90% of applications by kWh.

Battery technology.
Better batteries are expected from better anodes, better cathodes,
better chemistry, and new versions.
Lithium-air is one.
Solid state lithium battery is another.

None of the above is magic or speculation, most data comes from
investor/university presentations from existing technologies at
established companies.
Other competitors will inevitably develop similar tech at similar
pricepoints (LG, BYD, many others).

I believe, as do many others, that "everything" will inevitably go
electric within about 5 years, simply because its so much cheaper/better.
I follow this quite a lot, as it mimics the IT curve in RAM/HDD/internet
stuff I was involved with for many years.
There is also lots of money to be made in many ways.

Today, 2015, about 1% of all new cars are electric.
This will likely be 32% by 2020 (4.1 years from now) and over 50% in 2021.
Current increases are 100-300% year/year worldwide where electrics are
actively sold, basically north america, europe, and china.

Cars are by far the largest users, in kWh terms, of batteries.
Tesla and BYD are the market leaders, by value and kWh (Tesla) and nr of
vehicles (BYD, china in general).
Tesla makes about 5000 cars/month worldwide, china added about 30.000
new electric cars per month, recently (July I think).

New cheap, high powered, fast, large-battery cars, are coming in
2017-2018, from at least 5-8 major companies.
These will cost 15.000 - 25.000 - 35.000 $, depending.

Main driver is money, not green.
A 500 hp electric engine costs under/about 500$ in materials to make, vs
3000-6000 for traditional ice.
In a common family sedan, costs are typically 1/3 engine, 1/3
transmission &driveline, 1/3 rest.

The 500 hp engine is about 28 kg in mass, online video on youtube on how
tesla makes theirs.
Its a std 3-phase motor, really cheap to manufacture in qty, lasts
near-forever.

Here is an interesting link to new 542 cars, similar versions coming
soon from many companies.
http://gas2.org/2015/01/22/505-horsepower-byd-tang-542-plug-suv-sell-just-35000/

--
-hanermo (cnc designs)