> Hi hanermo,
>
> You've got a few interesting metrics in your answers.
>
> $100,000 of LiFePO4 batteries would be 200kWh and they would weigh
> 5000lbs. That's a lot of storage.
Yup !
Thats what we all want- power density equivalent to what you need for
off-grid sustained use, with motive power. Affording it is the only
question.
200 kWh for the 45 ft cat would give 24 hours at decent speeds, and
about 2 days at medium speeds.
The 2000 kg mass is not a real problem, on a 45 footer, even a cat.
Remember that for a party (=charter) boat, they must have large capacity
available for entertainment, aircon, etc. etc.
> In AGM that would be 400kWh and about 10,000lbs...
>
> I really enjoyed the 5-7 year quote.
This is based on reality seen on the ground, today.
For the last 4-5 years, the EV dealers crowd who sell motorbikes,
scooters, and cars, are seeing year/over 20% incremental improvements.
The nr of retailer and distributors is increasing, and sales are brisk.
Same, mass, 20% cheaper, 20% more power.
Same money, 40% better in range and or mass.
It´s also the reason most hand tools are switching over to lion. I
believe 70% of new hand tools, today in the US, are battery driven.
I have some Hitachi Industrial tools that are battery driven, and they
are extremely good.
Of course, these are the best in the world, and priced accordingly, at
540€ of 700$ list for a drill, but the price is mostly due to the
*industrial* part.
Almost equivalent stuff is vastly cheaper from Makita, Bosch and the
medium tire manufacturers.
The real point is that it is doable, and works very well, today.
> It is exactly what all of us EV people were saying in 1995. It never
> quite materialized. Lithium did recently double the range of lead
> acid. But it costs at least 50% more for the same range...
Lithium is expensive, but the competition and quickly increasing
production numbers are driving the development and the costs down, 20%
yr/yr.
Simply based on production numbers, the incremental improvements are
sure to keep coming, as there is no hard physical barrier in sight, so far.
The thing that made it happen, was the criticical nr of households with
solar PV panels, as well as the already large nr of automotive-sector EV
users, and the growth seen in the same.
They need storage batteries ... and the need for the batteries is large
enough to fund the worldwide efficient-battery industry.
The perceived costs of oil have also helped, but the real driver is the
fact that if 100.000 households per year, worldwide, are going to buy 10
kWh energy storage each, thats a lot of capacity.
I believe this is about equivalent to the entire battery needs of the US
automotive market, at 10 -12 milion vehicles / year ?
I believe this 100.000 x 10 kWh (as desirable) is about what is being
currently installed on rooftops, worldwide, with year/year growth at
40-50%. Covers all install, both industrial and household ones.
Someone, somewhere, is going to make these batteries, and MPPT
controllers, cables, etc etc.
Competition and automated manufacturing do the rest.
Lately, we have been approximately doubling the worldwide installed base
of PV stuff every 2 years.
This trend is continuing, and the need for the batteries as part of the
equation is what makes all the manufacturers build better, cheaper,
lighter faster.
The final break-even point for PV is likely to be this year, at 1$/watt
PV panel prices.
This is grid parity.
We are just about there, at 1.22 - 1.40$ today, and some deals on
1$/watt already available.
>
> Fair winds,
> Eric
> Marina del Rey, CA
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