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Hey Hannu,This is all very interesting, and I was hopeful. Then I got to the part in your discussion where you quoted fuel prices.I do a small amount of private trucking for a special group of clients requiring special handling of their possessions. In the last year, I have traveled most of the Western and Mid-Western U.S., from near the southern boarder to withing 40 miles of Canada. I have yet to find ANYBODY selling gas or diesel for more than $3.5 a gallon.Right now, I get diesel for $2.29 on the high, and 2.03 on the low. And in places like my home State of Missouri, gas is regularly $1.80 or right at $2.00/Gal. So I am sorry, I could not read anymore until this issue was addressed.There is something else that has been a subject of U.S. governmental discussions in both State levels and at the Federal level. That is the fact that with engine efficiencies going up, and the growing numbers of hybrids and the smaller numbers of pure EVs, Legislators are not getting the revenue to fill the coffers, so roads and bridges can be built or maintained. They are looking at taxing the battery makers, EV builders, and the consumers (in registration/licensing fees) to compensate for the losses at the pumps. In some states I have heard of consumer fees being projected to double in the next 2 years. That means that my old 96 Ford F_Super Duty costs me $73.50 a year for license and regs. By 2020, the Hybrid will cost me around $147.00! Another example, My wife's old 2001 Prius costs me right at $120/year. This is projected to be $240+ if the state has their way with me. Factor in the specialty tyres they use, and the list goes on. Although I am no economist or accounting brain, but I think the economy is going to have to have an economic revolution to somehow curb the rising costs.Hey, I am all for economics of scale and the promotion of new tech and manufacturing developments. But the greed of the likes of big governments and Socialist views I think will squelch it before it gets that far.Sorry to be such a "debbie-downer", especially after I, just yesterday, was promoting positive thinking. And I hope I am very wrong, but...I do hope your other numbers are more accurate and possible to achieve or surpass.Cheers my friendDan HSent: Monday, May 8, 2017 5:24 AMSubject: Re: [Electric Boats] Re: Lion batteriesAn update on Lion batteries, costs, and technology.
Most of this is related to tesla, since they are the biggest user of
lion batteries in the world, about 6 GWh in 2016 out of 24 GWh total in
the world (from an investor presentation online).
And most data re: lion battery tech / Tesal is available online due to
investor disclosures, marketing, auto industry financial analysis, etc.
In february, new battery data was presented to some investors, and some
slides are visible in a youtube video (you can google it).
Also showing production of the new 2710 lion batteries.
Key facts;
Old density was 260 WH/kg.
New density is 380 Wh/kg in a 27100 package.
And approx 50% cheaper.
This means lion batteries will now, inevitably, take over all motive
use, cars, vans, trucking, everything.
Both capacity and retail costs will plummet, within 2 years.
Mostly because everyone and their dog are now making new electric cars,
about 50 models from Big Auto between 2018-2020 and about 200 new BEV
startups in china alone.
Some will succeed.
This is 1.45 better ! than previous 18650-C cells, using a new chemistry
co-developed with panasonic.
The new package is twice the power !, 5800 mA (tested upto 6000 mAh), in
a packge 50% larger by volume.
So about twice the power, in 50% larger size == 1.45 % more efficient.
Old (Tesla, purchase/manufacture, paid to panasonic (PANA)) cost was
about 180$ / kWh;
thus new == 180$/ 1.45 ; == 124 $ / kWh
/ 1.1 due to using 50% less cells by volume; == 112 $ /kWh.
An old pack might use say 7000 cells, and the new one == 3500 cells, of
the larger type.
This reduces costs == 10%.
The reason costs plummet, is that every single manufacturer MUST deliver
approx. the same costs/capacities, or go out of business.
Once someoneone, anyone, in this case Tesla, has reached critical
mass/costs/qualities, other manufacturers with abundant money (ie all
top 10 auto companies, all top 10 industrial manufacturers), will fairly
quickly poach talent/innovations and production methods, since they can
all afford to spend the 1-5 B$ necessary to scale up.
The energy storage market, 17Trillion$/yr, and the auto market, 80M
cars, is huge.
This means that the lowest cost/best performance batteries will dominate
the market.
There is nothing particularly impossible about scaling up advanced lion
batteries ...
and LG Chem, chinese manufacturers, and everyone else in the marketplace
will soon be doing similar products, of nearly similar capacity.
I expect Tesla to make 200.000 model 3 (60 kWh) cars next year, 2018,
and 100.000 model S/X cars (85 kWh).
12+8.5 = 20.5 GWh, FY-2018.
So, we know that Real Soon Now lion battery costs will drop to approx
130$/kWh retail.
Thecurrent lion retail costs are now 300-700$, depending on what/how You
compare.
The key is that it is about the same cost to make a 27100 cell at 5800
mAh as a 3100 mAh 18650 cell.
When then made in approx 10x quantity, the costs drops about 15% x 15%,
or 32% total, again.
Doubling production typically reduces costs == 10-15%.
One link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIsS4jVyvck
Since many/most on this list are in the US, it is useful to note why
electric vehicles will take over on a global basis.
The global average cost of fuel is == 1.2 €/l, approx 6-7$ / gallon in
the USA.
The global avg. electric car rate, or nighttime electricity rate, is 4
cents / kWh.
So, it costs about 70€ == 80$, to fill a typical 65 l tank, here in
Spain, and similar in more/less every OECD country.
It costs about 4€ for 100 kWh charge, approx. equivalent range in a
medium sized upscale sedan BMW3-series, Audi A4, VW Passat, etc.
An electric car is == 10-15x cheaper !
A typical electric car will cost == 12€/ month in fuel, EU, vs about 3
tanks == 210€ / month for the similar gas/diesel car.
Politically, it is impossible to tax the electric cars at the same rates
as gas/diesel, although obviously some charges will appear.
At this time, in the EU, you can get about 6000 € (Germany) - 8000 €
(France) - 10.000€ (Spain) subsidy from the government, at purchase
time, for an electric car.
Here in Spain, for example, free city parking (worth 200€ / month),
free highway tolls (10-200€/month),
and 10.000 € off the ticket cost.
And of course, save about 200€/month in fuel costs.
(Obviously these subsidies will disappear, at some point.)
It is noteworthy that either the fuel savings, alone, or the free
parking, alone, will pay for a new 25.000€ w. subsidy, 35.000€ list
price car.
So everyone, but everyone, in Spain and most EU countries will quickly
switch to the new, compelling, powerful, long range BEVs once they
become available.
The very fast adoption of electric cars needs more, cheaper, better
batteries in great scale.
Today, 5/2017, about 3-8% of all new cars sold (OECD) are electric or
hybrids (where they are actively sold and make sense).
This percentage doubles every 12-18 months.
Once the new "good" compelling cars appear, from 2017 onwards (Tesla
model 3, similar), it is certain that the uptake rate will increase - I
expect it to double, or better.
Fwiw, here in Spain supermarkets have free 25 kW charge points, well
available.
Likewise, cities have installed free chargepoints.
So, if you plug in a BEV when you shop, You don´t necessarily pay
anything for the electricity.
--
-hanermo (cnc designs)
Posted by: Dominic Amann <dominic.amann@gmail.com>
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