Good analysis Hanermo. One key factor that is significantly lacking here in the U.S. is the inadequacy of charging infrastructure. The more that Tesla and other companies deploy long range capable EV's, the more people there will be that push their driving range and need to use Fast Charge stations. But that infrastructure is inadequate to handle increasingly large numbers of fast recharges. And while it may take but 20-30 minutes for a rough recharge of a 24kwh LEAF pack at a Fast Charge station, a car with a 60kwh pack would need to sit there for 60-80 minutes or so on average. That kind of wait time at arbitrary charge locations doesn't work for a lot of people.
Still, I do hope the future is even more electric. J
It certainly looks good for low cost lithium for boating---which suffers even worse in terms of charging infrastructure---there's zero backing for recharging infrastructure on the water----at least here in the U.S. of A.
-Myles
From: electricboats@yahoogroups.com [mailto:electricboats@yahoogroups.com]
Sent: Monday, May 8, 2017 3:24 AM
To: electricboats@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [Electric Boats] Re: Lion batteries
An update on Lion batteries, costs, and technology.
Most of this is related to tesla, since they are the biggest user of
lion batteries in the world, about 6 GWh in 2016 out of 24 GWh total in
the world (from an investor presentation online).
And most data re: lion battery tech / Tesal is available online due to
investor disclosures, marketing, auto industry financial analysis, etc.
In february, new battery data was presented to some investors, and some
slides are visible in a youtube video (you can google it).
Also showing production of the new 2710 lion batteries.
Key facts;
Old density was 260 WH/kg.
New density is 380 Wh/kg in a 27100 package.
And approx 50% cheaper.
This means lion batteries will now, inevitably, take over all motive
use, cars, vans, trucking, everything.
Both capacity and retail costs will plummet, within 2 years.
Mostly because everyone and their dog are now making new electric cars,
about 50 models from Big Auto between 2018-2020 and about 200 new BEV
startups in china alone.
Some will succeed.
This is 1.45 better ! than previous 18650-C cells, using a new chemistry
co-developed with panasonic.
The new package is twice the power !, 5800 mA (tested upto 6000 mAh), in
a packge 50% larger by volume.
So about twice the power, in 50% larger size == 1.45 % more efficient.
Old (Tesla, purchase/manufacture, paid to panasonic (PANA)) cost was
about 180$ / kWh;
thus new == 180$/ 1.45 ; == 124 $ / kWh
/ 1.1 due to using 50% less cells by volume; == 112 $ /kWh.
An old pack might use say 7000 cells, and the new one == 3500 cells, of
the larger type.
This reduces costs == 10%.
The reason costs plummet, is that every single manufacturer MUST deliver
approx. the same costs/capacities, or go out of business.
Once someoneone, anyone, in this case Tesla, has reached critical
mass/costs/qualities, other manufacturers with abundant money (ie all
top 10 auto companies, all top 10 industrial manufacturers), will fairly
quickly poach talent/innovations and production methods, since they can
all afford to spend the 1-5 B$ necessary to scale up.
The energy storage market, 17Trillion$/yr, and the auto market, 80M
cars, is huge.
This means that the lowest cost/best performance batteries will dominate
the market.
There is nothing particularly impossible about scaling up advanced lion
batteries ...
and LG Chem, chinese manufacturers, and everyone else in the marketplace
will soon be doing similar products, of nearly similar capacity.
I expect Tesla to make 200.000 model 3 (60 kWh) cars next year, 2018,
and 100.000 model S/X cars (85 kWh).
12+8.5 = 20.5 GWh, FY-2018.
So, we know that Real Soon Now lion battery costs will drop to approx
130$/kWh retail.
Thecurrent lion retail costs are now 300-700$, depending on what/how You
compare.
The key is that it is about the same cost to make a 27100 cell at 5800
mAh as a 3100 mAh 18650 cell.
When then made in approx 10x quantity, the costs drops about 15% x 15%,
or 32% total, again.
Doubling production typically reduces costs == 10-15%.
One link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIsS4jVyvck
Since many/most on this list are in the US, it is useful to note why
electric vehicles will take over on a global basis.
The global average cost of fuel is == 1.2 €/l, approx 6-7$ / gallon in
the USA.
The global avg. electric car rate, or nighttime electricity rate, is 4
cents / kWh.
So, it costs about 70€ == 80$, to fill a typical 65 l tank, here in
Spain, and similar in more/less every OECD country.
It costs about 4€ for 100 kWh charge, approx. equivalent range in a
medium sized upscale sedan BMW3-series, Audi A4, VW Passat, etc.
An electric car is == 10-15x cheaper !
A typical electric car will cost == 12€/ month in fuel, EU, vs about 3
tanks == 210€ / month for the similar gas/diesel car.
Politically, it is impossible to tax the electric cars at the same rates
as gas/diesel, although obviously some charges will appear.
At this time, in the EU, you can get about 6000 € (Germany) - 8000 €
(France) - 10.000€ (Spain) subsidy from the government, at purchase
time, for an electric car.
Here in Spain, for example, free city parking (worth 200€ / month),
free highway tolls (10-200€/month),
and 10.000 € off the ticket cost.
And of course, save about 200€/month in fuel costs.
(Obviously these subsidies will disappear, at some point.)
It is noteworthy that either the fuel savings, alone, or the free
parking, alone, will pay for a new 25.000€ w. subsidy, 35.000€ list
price car.
So everyone, but everyone, in Spain and most EU countries will quickly
switch to the new, compelling, powerful, long range BEVs once they
become available.
The very fast adoption of electric cars needs more, cheaper, better
batteries in great scale.
Today, 5/2017, about 3-8% of all new cars sold (OECD) are electric or
hybrids (where they are actively sold and make sense).
This percentage doubles every 12-18 months.
Once the new "good" compelling cars appear, from 2017 onwards (Tesla
model 3, similar), it is certain that the uptake rate will increase - I
expect it to double, or better.
Fwiw, here in Spain supermarkets have free 25 kW charge points, well
available.
Likewise, cities have installed free chargepoints.
So, if you plug in a BEV when you shop, You don´t necessarily pay
anything for the electricity.
--
-hanermo (cnc designs)
Posted by: "Myles Twete" <matwete@comcast.net>
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