This is a good, relevant, and correct post ...
related to what I mentioned, with retail costs being, now, 300-700 $/kWh for battery packs.
And very much for battery + VFD (= inverter) total system costs.
So a Tesla (or say Sonnen xxx from germany) system might cost 7500$ for n capacity.
Today, the retail inverter is pricy, the retail lion pack is pricy at 300-700$/kWh.
Tomorrow, the VFD will be cheap and so will the battery pack.
The tesla tech is nr 1 in the world in battery cell costs => auto battery packs costs.
Nr 1 in the world in the lion tech, vfd tech, lion longevity tech, yes.
Tsla is really good in lion cells, auto lion battery packs, auto vfds, auto tech, auto sw.
So, Tesla tries to make all the money they can from the battery storage systems ...
which are about 50% of the price of the nearest competitor, by delivered energy in kWh.
But they have low cash, negative cashflow, and major very high negative propaganda.
Tesla has huge execution risks.
The tesla home-storage system is mostly not economical.
Industrial storage is sometimes economical.
But both are about/near 50% better than the nearest competitor, and their actual costs are less than 50% of retail prices, leading to rapid scale-up, high increase in install volumes, high scale-up.
--
Tsla PV panels:
Despite everything they have done well, and do well, the tsla solar panels are, imo, a loss leader of (significant) negative value.
They are minor in terms of the enterprise value, and thus Tsla can discard them at any time.
And should, imo, ime.
Global leaders (china) make panels at .38$/w, soon 0.37, trending 0.30 by ye 2018.
Quite profitably, non-subsidy.
I think tsla panels are a non-significant minor item, and thus inconsequential in fiscal terms.
--
I am not a "tsla fanboy" as such but a proponent of excellent tech well applied.
Tsla has done so, via huge risks, with fantastic results, in terms of scaling up.
I also admire what Musk has done, and continues to do..
while noting the errors he has done and problems/issues he has overcome.
He is one of the best crisis managers in the world.
--
Tsla is about 1-2-4 years from becoming the most valuable multinational conglomerate in the world.
Because of batteries.
Batteries are Enough.
Within 2-4 years, unless SomeOne Else scales up better cheaper batteries faster, Tsla will become the nr 1 industrial conglomerate in the world.
This is based on physics, stock market, investments, and stock market bonds / ratings / valuations.
I think this is both very good, and somewhat bad.
It is not necessary for any stock market company to be nr 1 in production, just to be the nr 1 in growth with no realistic competitors with growth.
2016: Tsla used about 6 GWh/24 GWh global lion batteries. Approx 20-25% global use. => 30-40B valuation.
2017: Est. 10-12 GWh.
2018: Est. 24-30 GWh.
2019: E. 80 GWh (energy 20-40 GWh).=> 400B+ valuation.
I would vastly prefer E.Musk to manage the nr 1 industrial company in the world vs a GM manager like Barra ( or say G. Lutz), but it has always happened (including google) that the good guys cannot always and only do Good Things once the things get too big.
My predictions are based on my experiences buying/selling stuff in these hyper-growth exponential industries, plus stock market stuff in same.
I participated in HDD, RAM, MB, PCs, networking, internet operators, machine tools, sometimes as an executive or principal, sometimes as a lecturer, for the last 25+ years.
I have always been excellent in macro/tech trends, for the last 25+ years within/over the next 2-5 years timeframe, and ...
quite weak in stock price trends/valuations of (other) companies or commodities.
Thus I have no idea or recommendations on winners, companies, or investments.
I have no idea if Tsla will succeed, or is a good investment, or Sonnen, Magna, or Sakti, et al.
My comments are based on cost/unit, profits, tech and trends.
The best results always win in a tech-heavy field like lion battery energy density / cost = RAM = HDD = PCs etc.
This is where magna/delphi/steyr/gm/vW etc went wrong.
They thought no-one else would scale-up or develop, if they did not themselves.
They thought it is Major Expensive, only because they had Legacy Costs. Like IBM vs MS, 1980.
Windows vs linux, 1990.
They did not notice the green-field of new-startups, worth more than all the Big Auto global growth together, in terms of global growth in $ terms alone.
Exactly like railways, early 1900s.
They thought their business was building railways - when it was transporting stuff.
Installed costs on Tesla Wall 2 is $7500+ FYI and you have to have solar panels (i.e. buy them from solar city). I called up and its a SALES RACKET. finance the panels, but Tesla Wall is cash up front.
Dale Hotten619.708.3258
-- -hanermo (cnc designs)
Posted by: Hannu Venermo <gcode.fi@gmail.com>
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