Thanks guys, much appreciated.
As another pov, I am very negative re: the solarcity business.
Positive PV - but that is not related to the Solarcity stuff.
Their problem is that the SC business is really only designed to pump
the ITC subsidy of 30% from the government.
It has nothing, absolutely nothing, do do with PV as such.
Thus, PV makes a lot of sense, and costs about 1€/W, installed, retail,
globally.
However, SC sells systems at a lot at 3$/W, give or take.
Example:
In australia, avg systems are self-installed, 30.000 / month, at around
1€/W, avg 5-6 kW, each, just right.
Avg AUS install is about 5-6 kW, as I said, and avg cost about 6500$ total.
In the US, 27 k$ per install, == 9 kW, as the bigger the sell the bigger
the subsidy.
The SC problem is
1. huge customer acquisition costs, making each client a loss in terms
of NPV or enterprise value.
2. clients don´t get any benefit.
It all goes to SC. THIS makes it unlikely to be a long term profitable
proposition.
Essentially, the near 18.000$ "margin" in an avg. SC install all goes to
SC, and they spend it, and more, on getting more clients.
Re-cap:
PV is great, and current install deliver power at around 0.03-0.04$ /
kWh, or about 66% cheaper than anything traditional.
Avg US price of power is 0.11$, globally about 0.11€/kWh.
For comparison, new nukes cost about 0.20€, or about 500% more (Hinkley,
UK, Finlands last plant).
PC is just cheaper, by about 66%, and going down about 5-10% y/y
exponential.
Wind is similar, around 0.04€/kWh, today.
On 05/08/2016 13:45, jwm.bijlard@gmail.com [electricboats] wrote:
>
> What a great post Hannu !
>
> A well meant "Thank you" for all you contribute to this forum.
>
> You guide our dreams with some reality.
>
> Regards,
> Han.
--
-hanermo (cnc designs)
Posted by: Hannu Venermo <gcode.fi@gmail.com>
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