T-Pain Is On A Boat: Re: [Electric Boats] AC vs DC motors

Thursday, August 4, 2016

Re: [Electric Boats] AC vs DC motors - new EC cat

I have been planning an eBoat project for awhile, and found tha in multi KW energy need an storage there are definite leaders in battery technology for marine applications are http://corvusenergy.com/ proven by several MAh of installed battery capacity, and in motors energy control etc. BAE systems and Siemens are the most advanced.

Probably none of them are really cheep but deliver solid proven products, it might be worth checking them out.

2016-08-04 10:05 GMT+00:00 Hannu Venermo gcode.fi@gmail.com [electricboats] <electricboats@yahoogroups.com>:

I disagree on this..
You are incorrect on facts, imo.

Tesla has, by far, the best long-lived battery system on the planet.
They are also the worlds nr 1 user of batteries by capacity in kWh (BYD is 1 by nr of batteries), and Tesla is, by far, the largest best funded researcher of battery tech.
They spend about 800 M $ / year in R&D, and have been at the battery game, fully focused on batteries, for 13 years.

What Tesla has proven, is that using their current, proprietary (ie Tesla only), version C chemistry on the 18650 sized cells, and using thermal conditioning, is that their battery pacls last 2-5 longer than anyone else in the world.

No-one actually knows when, or if, the Tesla format large packs fail.
At this time, from 300+ data points, and 100.000 plus users, what has been shown is that the battery wear or degradation slows down for some reason, and seems to "stabilise" around 94%.

Obviously, shallow-cycling is part of the reason.
Obviously, thermal management is part of the reason.
Obviously, chemistry is part of the reason.

There are many valid criticisms and risks in the Tesla story. Battery technology is not one of them.

Winston, whoever they are as a manufacturer, is a rounding error.

Panasonic makes about 50% of all the batteries in the world, by kWh.
Tesla is about 50-60% of all panasonic manufactury.
BYD is second as a user/manufacturer, with old tech, now perhaps transitioning to newer versions.
LG and Samsung do about 50% of the rest.
Everyone else is peanuts.

Battery tech (lion) advances about 9% y/y exponential.
=> every 5 years we get 50% more/cheaper.
Trend has continued for 15 years, and is accelerating.

Current world leader in cost, pack density, gravimetric density, and longevity, is Tesla.
Tesla is approx 180$/kWh (my est, whisper nr), and 260 kWh/kg on current, old, 2012 designed packs on Models S and X.

The "new" packs are likely to be around 330Wh/kg, and at 2710 format, about 30-40% increased volumetric density.
Likely cost around 120$-140$/kWh, in 2017, and sub 100$/kWh by 2020.

At 400 W/kg we get electric aeroplanes and vans and trucks.
At 500 W/kg, at 60-80$/kg, we get electric everything.

This is inevitable, but timeframe is a guess.
Between 2022-2025.

Battery tech is driven by electric cars (mobility, scooters, motorbikes).
Growth is about 100% y/y exponential, now about 2-5% of all new cars sold where the markets support it.

2015, about 116.000 in the USA, 300.000 in china.
2016, about 130-150 k in the USA, and maybe 300.000 in china.
China grew 300% in 2015, and will grow another 100-200% this year, 2016.

Prediction:
In 2018, one of the big five auto companies will go bk, due to not focusing or being ready on electric cars.
Reason is money, ie bonds and debt and the stock markets vis a vis growth of Tesla et al.
In 2018, the market tilts, and everyone in Big Auto focuses, publicly, on electric cars.

Reason:
Tesla took 25% of large-segment premium cars, from MB, Audi, BMW, et al.
In 3 years.
New compelling BEVs from Tesla and others, will take 25% of mid-size premium cars from same BMW, Audi, MB.
In 2 years.
If any of the Big Auto lose even 5% of their sales in the premium midsize segment, they go BK in 5 days due to bonds /ratings and loan covenanats.
Almost all the money aka profits they make they get from this segment, Audi A4, BMW 3 series, etc.

Critical technology reason:
80% of all auto sales are not in USA (100M/yr, 18M /USA).
90%+ of the auto world has gas priced at around 7$ / gallon, in US terms.
An electric car costs about 3€ / tank to fill (EV rate, Spain, 0.03€/kW, 100 kWh).
A full tank costs about 65 € (to 75 €, depending).

For 90% of the oecd world, a BEV car is free, aka saves about 200€ / month in gas (car costs about 200-300€ / month).

Example:
GM has 160B in liabilities aka debt.
They cannot service ie pay the interest on the debt, if their sales on their cash cows start to decline.
Stock market is forward looking, and if sales decline, the barrel tilts and BK is inevitable and fast.
All major auto companies are similar, to an extent.

It is or course obvious that new electric vehicles will get taxed, at some point.
At this time, it is political suicide (oecd) to do so, so...

On 04/08/2016 02:28, Arden Wiebe albert682@yahoo.com [electricboats] wrote:

I'd never recommend going with tesla batteries. Most of it is marketing FUD designed for sales. When in comparison you can have a much better batteries with some of Winston Chung's offerings. http://en.winston-battery.com/

I really don't think the mega take your money battery factory that tesla proposes will prove to be better that what the preceding company is offering. The tesla batteries are an exercise in over complexity. Not something you want on a boat. Winston battery is where it is at - they are years ahead of anyone else. Still waiting to see some real life cruising numbers from James Sizemore and how he is enjoying and using his solar electric craft with the 1000ah batteries.
--   -hanermo (cnc designs)  