Ben,
I agree with everything you said except the main point, solar HAS crossed over to being a competative and cost effective alternative to conventional electric power generation. We were on the cusp for 20 years but we have clearly crossed over in the last two years. You are buying into the big lie that is holding everybody back!
Production capacity for PV is growing exponentially because people are buying it. People are buying it because it has become a good deal for more and more applications.
Only 5 years ago I would never have tried to build a solar powered Trawler because at $8/Watt, the array alone would have cost $40,000, let alone a much higher cost for the Balance of System items. Earlier this year I paid $1500 for a kiloWatt of PV and I know where I can get it for $1000 today. That means an unlimited supply of electricity to push my 45' boat around the great loop cost about $5000. Even with the BoS items I'm still only spending about $7000 for a fuel supply that should last at least 20 years. I would have spent $5000 for the diesel fuel for one trip around the loop alone. And that is at "TODAYS" diesel prices, who knows what diesel will cost next year. But my fuel will still be the same price, FREE. That economic is way past the cusp of cost effectiveness my friend.
I'll admit my economics look a little unnatureally good because I'm a DIYer so my integrated cost is about 1/3 of hiring someone to do it for me but even at three times the cost, there is a reasonable payback on the horizon. That's why the solar boat industry is taking off. No doubt, if you wait a little longer, solar will become an even "better" deal but it's already a good deal, right NOW. And it will only continue to get better, unless the "powers that be" manage to sabatage the solar industry again like they did in the mid 80s. If we had stuck with the Jimmy Carter plan for energy independance we probably wouldn't be in the economic mess we have right now. Politicians that serve themselves and their friends instead of the greater good of our society are the ones that have gotten us into this mess and that's probably not going to change. Any time anyone even suggest that we try to work together for our own greater good they are labeled a socialist or a communist and drummed out of town. It's true for the debates about education, energy, and healthcare. Heaven forbid we do the right thing, that just wouldn't be capitalism.
If you have any doubt about solar's crossover to cost effectiveness, just take a close look at my favorite socialist society, Germany. The same guys that make that really spiffy Perm motor. They have embraced the alternative energy revolution and thier economy is booming. There are places in Bavaria where solar supplies 40% of the grid capacity in the summer. And if you look at a solar resource map, you see that Germany has pretty sucky resources when it comes to incident solar radiation falling on them. Alnd all those "still just a little" adjudtives are only pointing out that although solar has only just arrived at cost effectiveness, it is well on its way to being a no brainer.
Are there a lot of hurdles to cross, you better believe it. We will probably never have a completely decentralized energy infrastructure for all the reasons you pointed out but none of the reasons NOT to go solar have any basis in economics or technical feasibility.
As long as the republican oil men don't get back in office, we might be well on our way to Solartopia. :) but we do have a looooooong way to go to get there.
Carter
From: Ben Okopnik <ben@linuxgazette.net>
To: "electricboats@yahoogroups.com" <electricboats@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Sunday, November 20, 2011 1:28 PM
Subject: Re: [Electric Boats] Re: new lithium battery breakthrough?
Hi, Carter -
On Sun, Nov 20, 2011 at 06:38:59AM -0800, Carter Quillen wrote:
>
> Ben,
>
> That day is here, right NOW!
Well, _close._ But not quite there yet. Have you noticed all the "just a
little more"s, "although"s, "still just a little"s, "approaching"s, and
"the only thing lacking"s in your own post? :)))
Seriously, though: we're very much on the cusp. It's often an
economically-feasible proposition these days, and the early adopters
aren't losing huge amounts of money (although they're going to be
insanely jealous of the economies of scale 5-10 years down the road;
you'll hear a lot of "in *my* time, we had to..." stories.)
> And, installing solar and building a decentralized energy infrastructure is
> not only infinitely more environmentally responsible, it is far more labor
> intensive than building new power plants and transmission lines and would put
> exponentially more people to work doing it. Yet the electric utility industry
> is spending millions lobbying Washington to keep the status quo in place and
> keep the rest of us in energy dark ages.
The energy lobbies don't have to work very hard at it; politicians
recognize that power decentralization is directly tied to less political
control over the populace (students of history will note that one of the
primary goals of any revolution or other military takeover is the
seizure of water, power, and radio/TV stations.) Sure, decentralizing
power has all the benefits you've listed - but it's not going to happen
as a government initiative; without control of distribution, they have
nothing (students of economics ought to spot that one from a mile off. :)
In political terms, you're asking the people holding the purse strings
to pay for getting their own throats cut. Not very likely, no matter the
economic or any other benefits that might result.
--
Ben Okopnik
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To: "electricboats@yahoogroups.com" <electricboats@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Sunday, November 20, 2011 1:28 PM
Subject: Re: [Electric Boats] Re: new lithium battery breakthrough?
Hi, Carter -
On Sun, Nov 20, 2011 at 06:38:59AM -0800, Carter Quillen wrote:
>
> Ben,
>
> That day is here, right NOW!
Well, _close._ But not quite there yet. Have you noticed all the "just a
little more"s, "although"s, "still just a little"s, "approaching"s, and
"the only thing lacking"s in your own post? :)))
Seriously, though: we're very much on the cusp. It's often an
economically-feasible proposition these days, and the early adopters
aren't losing huge amounts of money (although they're going to be
insanely jealous of the economies of scale 5-10 years down the road;
you'll hear a lot of "in *my* time, we had to..." stories.)
> And, installing solar and building a decentralized energy infrastructure is
> not only infinitely more environmentally responsible, it is far more labor
> intensive than building new power plants and transmission lines and would put
> exponentially more people to work doing it. Yet the electric utility industry
> is spending millions lobbying Washington to keep the status quo in place and
> keep the rest of us in energy dark ages.
The energy lobbies don't have to work very hard at it; politicians
recognize that power decentralization is directly tied to less political
control over the populace (students of history will note that one of the
primary goals of any revolution or other military takeover is the
seizure of water, power, and radio/TV stations.) Sure, decentralizing
power has all the benefits you've listed - but it's not going to happen
as a government initiative; without control of distribution, they have
nothing (students of economics ought to spot that one from a mile off. :)
In political terms, you're asking the people holding the purse strings
to pay for getting their own throats cut. Not very likely, no matter the
economic or any other benefits that might result.
--
Ben Okopnik
-=-=-=-=-=-
------------------------------------
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<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/electricboats/
<*> Your email settings:
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<*> To change settings online go to:
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(Yahoo! ID required)
<*> To change settings via email:
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